Wednesday, October 21, 2020

Debate prediction: a flailing Trump

Debate prediction: a flailing Trump 

Trump does not have the words to tell herd immunity from everyone being exposed already and getting sick or not (which is not herd immunity, it is a virus burning out). SARS-CoV-1 burnt out just before the vaccine was ready. This one likely will too, but 200,000 more Americans will die before it does. This is not because of Trump, but because no one is telling people with "seasonal allergies" to stay home. A competent White House would have. 

Trump cannot win by playing to his base, but he knows no other game and is incapable of learning a new one. Trump attacked Fauci on a red meet call, not where it matters. He does not realize that his base has leaks. Even if he did, he has no ability to keep his cards closer to his vest. 

Nothing Trump will do in this debate is noteworthy (unless he behaves like an adult). His ticket was doomed the moment the fly landed on Pence's head.  His fate is already sealed. Once early voting results are announced, it will be mathematically impossible for Trump to win There will be no drawn out drama. The only thing Biden needs to do in the first 100 days is not be Donald Trump. 

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