Links for 5/28/20

Links for 5/28/20
The America piece is an analysis, not an opinion hit piece. Relax, Michael.

The New Republic(an) criticizing First Things is not really news either. There are really not useful SARS2 stories without an analysis of the cultural undertones of the messaging from all sides.

White Catholic voters are a demographic too. Amy is the essential candidate if Pence is the nominee, which is more likely with every Tweet and press conference. It is vital to keep the never-Trumpers - not to just win, but to annihilate the GOP. Not even Florida MAGA likes Trump anymore. If they are not the canary in the coal mine, no one is. Sadly, even the WH Press Secretary can't sell it without looking bad.

Don't underestimate the ability of Western Iowa Republicans to throw King under the bus - along with Trump. They got rid of Roger Jepsen too. It is why I never went back to the Hill.

The Catholic Vote

The Catholic vote decides who wins, even if it doesn't exist
High identity ethnic Catholics are as much a special constituency group in the Republican Party as any found in the Democratic Party. HICs were part of the Taft wing of the GOP (not the Ike wing), they voted for Goldwater (like my father), voted in droves for Nixon, still believe he was innocent and hated Bill Clinton. Their college graduate children split between the Democratic and Republican elites, depending on their economics and family political fidelity.

Catholic voters have been, and always will be, subject to grievance on social issues. The Nixonian Swift Boat Veterans for Truth rallied the pro-Nixon vast right-wing conspiracy, but grievance over Gavin Newsom performing marriages for gay couples because not doing so is unconstitutional (a view 8 Justices agreed with in Perry v. Brown) led Karl Rove to push defense of marriage constitutional amendments. This was a step too far for religious voters (both Catholic and AME), some of whom voted for both Kerry and Proposition 8.

Burke (and other Catholic conservative bishops) vowing not to give Kerry  Communion (with one priest denying it to Biden more recently) was an embarrassment to university educated Catholics. Burke was not rewarded for the controversy. Like Bernard Law, he was called to Rome to stay. Going after Sisters who supported Obamacare and firing gay Catholic couples does more harm than good. The politics of Catholic grievance can backfire.

The Catholic 'votes' will still pick the next president

A bit more history is in order.

The message in 2008 was that formerly pro-life Catholic intellectuals could no longer go along with the bishops in their obvious Republican partisanship on abortion. That year, the Catholic vote and the vote overall were for Obama in exactly the same percentages.

In 2016, male Obama only voters and left-leaning Sanders voters (some of whom were and are Green Party members), stayed home. Clinton got Black and Feminist voters in record numbers, while High Identity Catholics were energized by racism against for Obama and voted for Trump. Obama-only voters punished Hillary for the sins of Bill on welfare reform and for putting Kaine, rather than Booker, on the ticket. When Trump maneuvered Hillary into supporting partial birth abortion, it was a bridge too far for enough suburban Catholic women and they joined in the grievance vote, putting Trump in office. They voted Democratic in 2018.

2020 will be a rout if Trump is still President. If he is replaced by Pence before then and Warren is on the ticket, the Lincoln Project voters may switch back to Republican voting. If Amy is on the ticket, Pence looses. Suburban Catholic women will identify with her - but not the wonkish Warren. Harris is to loudly pro-choice to play in among Ohio Catholic voters (although Dayton and Cleveland voters will turn out for her in droves. Both sides are all about identity politics. How suburban Catholic women respond to the pro-choice victory in June v. Gee may or may not make the difference.

I would hope that, at some point, Biden will sit down with the USCCB and educate them on the constitutional issues that make overturning Roe impossible. Since his age will likely prevent him from seeking a second term, making the lesson public could drive a stake in the heart of the pro-life movement. If he couples it with a push toward dramatically increasing family income, Cupich Catholics will welcome the redirection of the movement. This should probably wait until after November (unless polling among suburban Catholic women shows support for striking down Louisiana's Trap laws in June). Not igniting grievance is probably the best move for now (especially from the top of the ticket).

People only identify as Nones because they are asked about it by pollsters. While some may say that they are spiritual and not religious (which is a term of art found in AA meetings), many still identify in their religion of origin, even if they no longer go to Mass weekly. Voting pro-choice or marriage equality do not put someone outside of the Church because these issues are judicial, not political. No one can be excommunicated for simply having an opinion - or even stating it - on American constitutional law. If so, it is people who desire to end judicial review and revert to Catholic mob rule who are committing sin.

The Evangelical leaders decided to adopt the Catholic position on Life (and later Marriage) issues. The question should not be whether Catholic Democrats are still Catholic, but whether the USCCB Pro-Life Activities Office and its supporting bishops are more Republican than Catholic. If so, enacting Catholic social teaching in to law has no chance. I still want to no if there was collusion between the Internet Research Agency, the Trump campaign and the USCCB on abortion issues in the 2016 election. If so, could it even be investigated?

Has the conservative Catholic project exhausted itself?

Has the conservative Catholic project exhausted itself?
Conservatism needs something to react to. First Things was the Catholic part of the right-wing obsession with all things Clinton (in defense of all things Nixon).. There really was a vast right-wing conspiracy after all. Hillary has retired to be a grandmother and opposition to her has given us Donald Trump. Sanders is about to fade into the sunset (and Warren will follow her. Support for Trump is its own derangement system and that ship is sinking.Going after Joe Biden would be weak tea indeed. Supporting Trump against a fellow Catholic is too bizarre, even for them, and defending Dick Nixon is the modern lost cause. Until someone from the Left born after 1960 emerges, their work is done.

Links for 5/21/20

Links for 5/21/20
The GOP needed someone like Wes Clark (who I worked the polls for) this year. It may have to settle for Mike Pence, if they want to save their party. Some progressives will go Green. They would have anyway. Most will work against Trump - and work harder against Pence. Free college and debt relief are Millennial identity politics, not policy. Hopefully Biden will keep his powder dry until we know how much the Midwest will be in play (and its Catholic identity politics on abortion). He needs a candidate who can thread that needle.

The choice behind the veep choice: demographics or ideas?

The choice behind the veep choice: demographics or ideas?
In a race where the Midwest is in play, the answer is demographics. Klobuchar. She knows that highlighting choice is unnecessary for a female candidate (which is a policy issue). As the daughter of a worker on the iron range, she also has the working class demographic (as does Biden).

Job One of VP candidates is do no harm. Biden has picked up never-Trumpers. Pence as nominee may or may not get them back. Amy is the best person to keep them. Warren will scare them back to Pence. She talks Choice too much (which is a religious identity issue) to win the Midwest. So does Harris. Low-information Republicans vote based on White identity. They never vote Democrat and capitalists rely on this, successfully. Upper income Black voters have not built up the assets to ever vote Republican. That is the reality.

Had either Harris or Warren grandstanded on Mnuchin, it would not have helped people who lost their homes at auction, barring huge mortgage assistance (which Obama did not provide, nor could Warren). Barring prior review of leases, Mnuchin LLC tenants have things worse than most know - but only local enforcement can help them. Rental enforcement is the last thing funded in any local government (where a little bribery goes a long way).

Links for 5/19/20

Links for 5/19/20
Until Rachel Bitecofer confirms your electoral suspicions, rethinking the current Blue Wall is not so important. I trust a good academic model much more than anything done by and for the media (or theologians - even Maryknolls). Paranoia will destroy ya. My worry is that Pence will be sitting President and will not pardon Trump - combined with Warren as VP. That would alienate the never-Trumpers and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Never Trumpers do not fear the deep state. Indeed, the hollowing out of government is an issue for them. Fearing ideology on the Court is a tired trope. June v. Gee will go the same way as the Indiana case on sex selective abortion - away from any further restriction on abortion. The main difficulties have been on civil rights - but these issues come from the lack of good options. Introducing random selection to college admissions and reenacting the Voting Rights Act prior clearance provisions are political choices - best made without Mitch as leader. The many examples of voter suppression over the last few elections are a good source for any new list.

The dead are well-mourned on MSNBC and will be once the Churches reopen. All things in good time, including the resolution of Zion. Neo-cons may cherish false equivalency, but God does not.

Why this year's presidential campaign may already be over

Why this year's presidential campaign may already be over
Biden may win Texas, so it is not over in the way you think it is. There is still much to discuss. The Supreme Court may hand the pro-life movement its hat if it overturns Gee v. June and strikes down Louisiana's Trap Laws in a lopsided vote. If this happens, some prominent Catholic (not Biden or Pelosi), must explain how the pro-life movement is hand in glove with the GOP and explain the logic behind civil rights precedent (that overturning Roe overturns everything since Hernandez v. Texas (look it up).

The Trump decisions from last week have already been made. Whether they will be published before the data are released to congressional committees and the grand jury is a question for the lawyers, but it may lead to Trump's exit. If this happens, abortion becomes a huge question in the Midwest.

Nothing is settled. The CNN poll is designed to make it look like there is still a race. It's good for ratings. Neither party minds, because turnout in settled elections is hard to predict (as we found out in 2016).

The ministerial exception is still the least bad option

The ministerial exception is still the least bad option
Because the Catholic Church employees Sisters and Nuns in Catholic schools, as well as lay teachers, the line is clear. Nuns and Sisters are covered and their vows are voluntary. CCD teachers promise to uphold doctrine (even in areas where the doctrine is plainly wrong). It is sad but appropriate. Teachers should not be made to take vows to teach science (including sex ed). They should be, and usually are, accountable to the parents who elect a parish school board.

The Church is still being petty because they lost badly in defending traditional marriage. The bishops need to quit being babies and join the 21st Century (and read Dignitatis Humanae).They also need to be elected by pastors and parish administrators. Should teachers be able to unionize? It should be required if they receive public money (as they should), regardless of the NEA position on abortion (which has nothing to do with its legality.).

Links for 5/14/20

Links for 5/14/20
The Flynn saga needs to end, unless Flynn comes clean on what Pence knew and when he knew it. He won't, because no one has asked the question.

Donahue, like Arroyo, is best ignored as a blowhard. Still, in this case, Dolan was simply being gracious, in the same way that Francis is gracious in celebrating Mass at St. John Paul's tomb.

Biden needs to keep his powder dry on the VP nod. If Pence is pushed out, she is essential to counteract Pence in the Midwest. If Trump survives the Mazars disclosures, anyone but Warren is a good running mate (she would scare the never-Trumpers).

The main issue on birth control for workers is that, because federal funds are at issue, it violates the establish clause to give religious employers power over their workers. Free exercise does not mean the right to control the behavior of others. The Church has never liked liked the result in Griswold v. Connecticut. Tough - it's the law.

That the Vatican can fire a bishop demonstrates that bishops are employees and Rome is liable for all judgments against the American Church on child or seminarian abuse. It either needs to let the people and clergy elect them or bankroll the damages.

Many misunderstand the 3/5ths compromise as an attempt to limit slavery, not treat slaves as less than people. How to distribute electoral power remains a tendentious issue. Republican politics post Obama has become so overtly racist as to be indecent. Reactionaries tend to hold onto power by moral and ethnic populism. It is a feature, not a flaw.The Revolution, it was a mercantilist enterprise and objectors to slavery, the Quakers, helped the British because of it. The industrial revolution and the invention of the cotton gin (both by Eli Whitney) made slaves of us all - including children. The battle against workers, this time migrants, continues to this day. Slavery is still an apt word.

A Marxian analysis is not out of place, nor is noting that Lincoln's commitment to workers rights falls within that rubric. He was certainly progressive and, yes, he did correspond with Marx, The Republican Party of Lincoln mostly held onto power through T.R. It even resorted to military power to hold its gains. After defeating Johnson, a Union General was made President. Lenin could not have done it better. The Taft capitalists ended up capturing it, just as the Neo-Liberals have captured the Democrats).

On Reparations, it was all the rage for states to apologize for slavery only a decade ago - including and especially Virginia. The challenge of reparations is to take the support of children out of welfare and make it a middle-class right (and to raise the minimum wage). In other words, put Catholic social teaching into practice.

V-E Day and Trump: What he refuses to learn explains his failure to lead

V-E Day and Trump: What he refuses to learn explains his failure to lead
Britain cared about their people and won. Hitler and Tito could have cared less and lost. Therein lies the lesson of the tragedy of Trump. The question is, will the Senate go down with Trump or take him down after the Mazars and Deutchebank data is turned over to the House and the State of New York? That the White House web page refers to @Mike_Pence rather than @VP says it all.

Links for 5/12/20

Links for 5/12/20
Sarah and Vigano' broke the 11th Commandment, Don't Get Caught. Of course, Trump is a wannabe tyrant, but I bet that is not what they are afraid of. Arroyo is part of it.

Masks marketed as an unsolicited bid are outside the normal program. If the money is not there for them, such bids are hard to respond to. Budget cuts make doing so impossible.

As Republican Senators feel the electoral heat from the left, they may make more extreme measures. The question is, who will be the Goldwater who gets Trump to quit. It could be Chief Justice Roberts within the next two hours.

The best thing that NARAL can do this year is nothing. As for young Republicans, having a sex life usually kills their commitment to overturning abortion, especially Millenials who are not finding jobs.

Republican intelligentsia give what they are paid to give. Shame and honesty have been out the window since Edmund Burke, although Clement of Antioch gave it a go when he invented excommunication as anything other than a power grab. Cardinal Cupich is the polar opposite of Clement.

The German President is such as well, although at some point, Germany needs to end self-flagellation, which is demoralizing its youth and has emptied out the Churches. Guilt has led people to fear God, and not in a good way.

Sectarianism is at the heart of Dolan-Trump imbroglio

Sectarianism is at the heart of Dolan-Trump imbroglio
That the Pro-Life Activities Office is a Republican front group is not news to anyone who has read Faithful Citizenship, been arranged to protest FOCA (which was not on the table and which also collected information for partisan purposes, or especially, has paid attention to or read their Bishop's letter on voting every other October. This is why no one pays attention to Democrats for Life. Did MSW think that there was no gambling in this establishment?

Should bishops refrain from criticizing each other in public?

Should bishops refrain from criticizing each other in public?
Dolan's courtesy to a sitting president on the call was not an issue. That the call got Zoom Bombed by other bishops was. Opinions on legal abortion demand public airing. The USCCB Pro-Life Activities staff is captured by GOP partisans, as are some of the bishops. Debate on this needs to be public in both Catholic and political circles. How bishops are selected is also part of the problem. Bishops elected by pastors and deacon administrators (lay ones, no clergy) could not get away with such non-sense. We are beyond the point when theological dispute by elected pastors is blood sport (like it was in the 4th Century). Episcopal opinion is just that, opinion. Truth stands on its own in argument, not by authority.

Links for 5/7/20

Links for 5/7/20
Let us hope that Lincoln's ghost still haunts the White House occasionally. The best way to get under Trump's skin is to ignore him. Attacking Pence instead would drive him batty. Trump is dragging down GOP incumbents. Pence as nominee is a real possibility.

In Red America, the wealthy can do no wrong. It is how we got Trump in the first place. Heavy Democratic turnout will cancel such beliefs out. Harris as the Veep candidate will help the Democrats in Georgia.

Trust fund obligations are a claim on borrowing by or taxes on the wealthy. Debt will simply be created for the wealthy to pay later. The cut, which was small, did not do much for consumer spending. Tell Trump that this was part of the Obama stimulus bill and the idea will go away fast.

Bishops' call with Trump raises ethical, legal issues

Bishops' call with Trump raises ethical, legal issues
That the USCCB staff is a Republican front group is not news, nor is White House flouting of the Hatch Act.  The bishops generally favor the GOP State Power theory of civil liberties that the GOP champions.

It is a central tenet of the Pro-Life movement and the defense of traditional marriage (and the bathroom wars). Catholic Democrats, especially Biden surrogates, need to pounce in this later.

Taking the story outside of the Fox echo chamber, however, simply gives publicity to the wrong people.

Links for 5/5/20

Links for 5/5/20
Reactionary capitalists have been pandering to moral conservatism since the early Pharaohs and Hamurabi in Ur. This is why atheism and Marxism find common cause. Allying with humanistic morality is another valid tool on the left (a better one). Another article of faith for capitalists is that bad benefits force low wage workers into jobs so that they can economically advance. It is pure Social Darwinism.

Biden is relying in Act Blue to do the digital campaign. They are nothing if not persistent. Hitching their wagon to SARS is high risk until we know how widespread immunity has become. If there is no second wave, it backfires badly, probably more to the benefit of Pence.

Not selecting Warren is one of the ways to fight a Pence candidacy. Give never-Trumpers an excuse to go back to the GOP and they will take it.  Don't discount the politics of luck.  The best way to beat Pence is to put Amy on the ticket to take the Midwest. That Politco is taking GOP partisan views at face value invites the vampire to come in. Part of luck is timing. This is why it is neither time to pick a VP or fund Jones directly.

Calling Plan B use abortion ignores actual science on when individuality begins. Ignoring science is bad doctrine. The Little Sisters do not have a cogent argument. Their idea of freedom of religion including forcing the Church's views in it employees is indefensible.

Armed mobs: the grim apotheosis of libertarianism

Armed mobs: the grim apotheosis of liberEgalitarian
Libertarians do not react well to the tyranny of the experts. They smell it a mile away. They get worried when, in a time where a lot is still unknown, no one seems to be going off script. The egalitarians scare them more. Younger people who are very unlikely to get very sick at all have been scared into compliance, the kind that lets authoritarians seize the day.

Egalitarians are afraid that if mask discipline is not enforced, they are at risk (including from people who have immunity from being sick). Doctors and nurses do not need PPE if they have had symptoms and recovered. The libertarians smell a rat - one that urges permanent social distance. Human interaction and getting sick is a protective factor. The CDC guidance will, if followed in the long term, make us vulnerable. The fact that no one is arguing the point is cause for alarm. So is the prospect of throwing more money into a market with a declining supply of labor and materials. Also cause for alarm.

On COVID-19 and the economy, First Things gets the last things wrong

On COVID-19 and the economy, First Things gets the last things wrong
The die was cast long ago on the elderly death rate from SARSCoV2. The CDC has pushed guidelines to keep the elderly from ever getting sick. The death rate among them is a result of that stupidity. Social distance and programmed panic won't build their immunities enough to survive it when exposed. Distancing was not about stopping people from getting sick, it was about slowing the spread down so that those who can survive with treatment can get a fighting chance. This is not Darwinian, it's clear thinking.

Scaring the crap out of healthcare workers has not helped things. If someone has recovered from the virus, they don't need PPE. Right now, COVID fear is keeping people away from hospitals until it is too late to help them. It is also keeping others away who need emergency non-SARS2 care (like detox).

The economic question is serious. Few are raising the obvious concern that giving higher subsidies to purchase a diminishing pool of labor and products may, in fact, be unsustainable. At the very least, liquidity must be extracted from the wealthy. The Federal Reserve is doing the opposite. This will not end well.

The C-Suite track on abortion is rhetorical. The reality is that more than 70% of families who get abortions are in poverty. The solutions to poverty are education, higher refundable child tax credits and a higher minimum wage. When presented with these options, most ersatz pro-lifers call these solutions socialism and subsidized sexuality. They are right, it is. That they oppose these measures shows that for many, the issue really is about controlling female sexuality. For many others, overturning Roe is about overturning the civil rights revolution, which quite rightly, gives federal protection to those aggrieved by state action.

That may one day include individuals who make a rational decision to suicide. The question is not whether this is a moral or immoral idea, but whether state governments and Churches should have the power to impose its choices on citizens. Mandated suicide is in the same class as mandated abortion. Such mandates are a violation of the Fifth and Fourteenth Amendments. These regulate state action, not legal permissiveness.