https://www.ncronline.org/blogs/distinctly-catholic/matthew-mark-luke-john-and-nate-silver by MSW. MGB: Nate Silver's computer analysis simply duplicates a careful eyeballing of the most reliable polls in each state. Generally, you throw out the really partisan Republican ones, like Rasmussen, which are more push poll than scientific measurement device. Just by looking at the last poll in late October of 2012, I came up with the same state by state for the POTUS (I did not bother with the House and Senate). Sadly, the world is not beating down my door.
As Nate and I will both tell you, it is too early to tell who will win. The election will not be held today. The debates have not happened. If you want to offer odds, my odds-on pick is that someone will convince Trump that he will be killed in the debates and that he should beg off. He can only do worse. Of course, his ego won't let him do that, so I will be looking at the early November results after the last debate to see whether Trump will win any states at all. It may be Hillary's to lose, but it is Trump's to be driven into the ground.
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