Wednesday, February 5, 2020

No one candidate truly won the Iowa caucuses

No one candidate truly won the Iowa caucuses
I identify Murphy, not Augustine, on Iowa. The real joke is on the media. Iowa (and other caucus states) make their final decisions at state conventions after the presumptive nominee is identified. In 2008, the perception had Superdelagates crown Obama to put him over the line. If Hillary understood how caucuses worked, she might have won at the last minute.

New Hampshire is so face to face state. Mayor Pete has not been there. Iowa voters held Biden's age against him. Joe is fighting back by hitting Pete for only being a Mayor. Only the Millenual vote keeps Sanders immune from the same fate. There are three colleges in Dubuque, which inflated his totals. He and Mayor Pete won't have that advantage everywhere.

Amy has the best ground game in New Hampshire. If Joe and Pete cannot dodge their negatives, the question is whether she can get the middle if Sanders and Warren split the left. If she and Warren split the women, Sanders will be hard to beat if his health holds.

South Carolina is Biden's last stand. His dominance with Black voters was because he was leading. He is not now.

Pro-Life Catholics are no factor in the primaries. Unless abortion is dealt with now, it could be another October surprise for Trump. Shame on the Movement if Trump or Pence win on this non-issue. The Dem winner needs to run against Pence on the issue.

The SDNY will take care of Trump. This is not good for the Democrats, because being Trump is more toxic than being a social democrat. Bernie is not really a socialist. He promised cheap stuff and a better cage. It is not real socialism.

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