Thursday, June 28, 2012

Polling on Health Care

Polling on Health Care by MSW.  MGB: The result was not anything that most expected, unless the listened to the last 60 seconds of the Solicitor General's rebuttal on the second day, which very clearly cited the taxing power as the reason to affirm the mandate.  Both I and Lawrence O'Donnell have been saying this for month, as well as many constitutional scholars.  What had the PR be so bad was the constant thought it would be overturned as unconstitutional.  That will no longer happen.  The next big opinion comes from the financial markets, which likely priced in repeal, not the existence of pre-existing condition reforms with a fairly weak mandate.  I expect health stocks to tank once this is realized, with insurers demanding a subsidized public option and repeal of guaranteed issue and community rating, with a new funding stream for the subsidy.  They will use their entire financial power to drown out Norquist and get this done before their stock price falls to zero.  Once there is a public option, 70% will favor reform.

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