Regarding Pennsylvania and the polls, years ago, Rachel Bitecofer got it right: that the Blue Wall would come back and that turnout on both sides would increase - just as they did in 2018. She was also the pollster for the Lincoln Project. Apparently, being a Never-Trumper was really a thing. Anyone in Northern Virginia could have told you a much. This is why political scientists are better than journalists at doing and interpreting polls.
Democrats need to see that economic desperation is what is behind Trumpism, not merely racism. The exit polls also have interesting results about the gender gap within racial groupings. Among Black voters, age matters, with a smaller gender gap among Hispanics. Blacks between 30 and 44 much more likely to be Trump voters. People who did not like Black Live Matter mostly voted for Trump, which speaks volumes about racism in the U.S. Supreme Court appointments were not a factor (so much for NARAL and the USCCB). Thoughts on abortion were predictable, but irrelevant. Attitudes on the economy were a huge predictor, as well as preference for a strong leader. Trump voters bought the hype. Nones voted 2 to 1 for Biden. Union membership was irrelevant. As expected, White men without degrees are Trumpers. Again, economic desperation.
There was no underselling the Biden victories in the streets on Saturday. As I write this, Trump is making personnel moves in the Pentagon. He misunderstands how profound the constitutional oath really is. The sad question I have is whether his supporters share his views. GOP officeholders mimicking the Trump line on the election are likely 2024 Republican candidates. They have not yet fled the sinking ship.
At the moment, Biden is dancing with the girl that he brought to the dance, which includes Never Trumpers. How tax policy shakes out (which is what we are really talking about when we talk economics issues) is not his call. The relationships between Chairmen Neal and Wyden or Neal and Crapo (depending on Georgia) as well as whether Sanders is Budget Committee Chair will make more of an impact.
Again, whether Trump tries a coup against the election, either a soft one or a hard one, will show the true nature of GOP leadership. The issue is not ethics, it's sanity.
Defunding the police - and how members communicate with their voters comes down to the O'Neill rule. All politics is local. While there are a few fringe marchers who really believe in firing all cops, the same group also predicts that Trump will try to steal the election. They may not be so fringe after all is said and done. Community organizations will not get more money, but mental health care doing more (and getting more of a share) than policing is absolutely essential. Indeed, it is the only sane course - provided that treatment and intervention are less optional than they are now. No more catch and release, or the the jails will remain the largest providers of mental health care.
The pandemic getting worse has nothing to do with Biden or the amount of relief provided. When it gets worse, McConnell will react - depending, of course, on whether the White House keeps up its current insanity and whether Mitch enables it. If Pence has the moral courage to sideline an obviously insane Trump, he and Pelosi will quickly make a deal to keep people paying their rent until the economy reopens. It will be closed fairly soon. 100,000 deaths in a month's time tends to lead to drastic measures.
No comments:
Post a Comment