Countdown in Iowa | National Catholic Reporter by MSW. MGB: That Hillary is still regarded as the front runner is evident from the fact that MSW does not do a similar analysis of the Sanders campaign. By the way, Sanders has grass roots campaigns in every state - and will contest them all the same way Obama did. The questions for her really are whether she is contesting them all as well and how voters think about having Bill Clinton back in the White House - especially since progressives don't really look back at his presidency with the nostaligia that some Democratic Party officials do. If they think that Bill will be anywhere near the Oval Office in her administration, her campaign is doomed. If she wants to hang his welfare reform around her neck, her vaunted African American support may just move somewhere else. Same for Wall Street.
On Trump and Cruz - the former is an authoritarian - which is why he leads among Iowa Republicans, especially in Steven King territory. Cruz is a whacky libertarian - known mostly for shutting down the government is a libertarian publicity stunt which would have been worse for them had Iowa farmers not gotten crop support payments in time. Rubio voters probably voted for Cruz in Iowa - and if he wins he will take voters from Cruz, not Trump. The real surprise candidate would be John Ellis Bush - who could benefit from the Trump - Cruz feud (I can't see how that Iowa voters, given a Florida former governor and a Florida former House Speaker from the same era would not pick the Governor).
The lesson from 2004 was that in 2003, I spoke with a DNC staffer on the train who said Kerry was going to be the nominee. I am sure there is some RNC staffer in the know about this who knows who the precinct leadership will be picking. By the way, I have a friend in Dubuque who is a precinct leader who is backing Bernie - but he may be an outlier. Film at 11.
No comments:
Post a Comment