Monday, February 11, 2019

Democratic candidates should listen to party's people, polls, not the elites

https://www.ncronline.org/news/opinion/distinctly-catholic/democratic-candidates-should-listen-partys-people-polls-not-elites
I can't see Schultz getting on the ballot as an independent. Bloomberg can self fund a Democratic run, but he will never get out of Iowa if he does. The folks at the DNC are behind Biden, just as they were behind Kerry and Clinton, neither of whom had the political smarts or the vision to win nationally. Party infrastructure matters, but it can be beaten. What will not happen is a Democratic candidate winning that is squishy on abortion rights. Even if the Democrats split into two parties because the GOP is MAGA only (which is not unlikely), half the delegates will be women and still most likely will be NEA members.

If Pence is dirty and Pelosi is the sitting President, the job is hers in 2020. If she puts Biden in as Speaker in her place before Pence leaves, Biden will be nominee. Right now, everyone running is really applying for the job of Vice President. A sitting President will not result in a partisan split, but no one in the mold of Casey will be chosen for either position.

 Donald J. Trump will not be the GOP nominee. Mr. Mueller will unredact his filings in a couple of weeks (to use Trump's own words). If he is exonerated by the Report, he will likely be portrayed as too stupid to have been in the center of the conspiracy. That is not likely. The evidence against him will likely be so strong that the only question will how quickly he will resign. If Pence is not indicted, he will be the GOP nominee and will be running against Biden, who will not defend Partial Birth Abortion, although he won't attack it either. That will be his VP nominee's job.

Clinton's mistake was that she was sure that she would win and picked a VP that would be a good POTUS. Biden (or Warren) will put Sen. Harris or Sen. Booker on the ticket, unless either of them wins the nomination.Then it will be Warren as VP. The VP or some other surrogate will do what Obama did and put the word out that the GOP is behind the pro-life movement. He or she may get an assist if Mueller shows that Clinton was hacked and the GOP knew she was vulnerable to a PBA question. If so, the question becomes if the Bishops also had advance warning. Regardless, the Democratic line on PBA is that it is already illegal and that late term abortion will be an issue dealt with after the election (if it is not dealt with before).  If the GOP stops one, everyone will know.

If the GOP goes full MAGA or has Pence (Mr. Charisma) as its nominee, it will lose, even in Indiana and even if Pence can separate himself from the MAGA base. He is decent enough to try, but then the GOP has no constituency. . Even if the DLC Democrats and their like-minded Republicans get together to form a new moderate party, that will only split the right and it will also lose 50 states. Nothing ill stop the wave.

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