New Data from Pew

New Data from Pew by Michael Sean Winters

It is amazing that Santorum, who is promoting his Catholicism, is still stuck at 2 percent. White evangelical/Tea Party voters have less influence in the nomination process than they did in 2010. What has changed is that there is no John McCain in the race. If Newt becomes the new Huckabee (and I don't think he is working hard enough to do that good), who get's the McCain cross-overs? I don't think it will be Newt.

That still leaves Mitt. He will keep his 2008 base and with the McCain voters, should clean up. He may need some Evangelical ticket balancing, which keeps Newt out when people start paying attention to his conversion. Its a long time until August. Primaries are not just about poll support. They are about mobiliizing party infrastructure. Getting the grass roots to give you money with a hot button fundraising letter is not the same thing as getting the support of state party elites.