Nationalized midterms could contradict some recent political norms

https://www.ncronline.org/news/opinion/distinctly-catholic/nationalized-midterms-could-contradict-some-recent-political-norms
MGB: Almost all posters are keeping it close when it is not. The current line is drawn at a 20% shift in favorability from Republican and Democrats, but recent special elections put the shift from the mid-thirties to the low forties. If that is the working assumption, the Republicans are about to go the way of the Federalists. Nate is now THE guru, although I had the same success in predicting the electoral vote count in 2012. This race is 2006 on steroid and is about the same issue, corruption. The only way to avoid it would have required early release of the Mueller report so that Ryan and McConnell could have confronted Trump and get him out for the good of the party, not that Trump would have listened, but Pence would have. A provision that is supposed to not influence the election is going to destroy the GOP.

One of the oft studied concepts in a American politics is divided government, but that was when it was the Democrats with a lock on the Congress with Republican Presidents. The principles might be the same, save for the extreme partisanship of any Republican Congress. In doctoral school, before both I and my dissertation advisor quit, was going to be comparing the generalized median set for Congress or committees as a whole to how partisan median sets predict electoral results. If I had used current data, partisan sets would have been more predictive. In a Congress with a spread of less than 20 points margin and a historical shift of more than 20 - as well as the preference of voters to believe in ticket splitting should lead to a change in regime, especially if the GOP loses big. Many Republicans have become independents because Trump emebarrasses them. Whether they stay home or vote Democratic, the result will be the same.

In the Senate, if the Democrats defend all seats and take the Republican ones, with a few Republicans shifting parties to keep their Chairmanships, a constitutional majority may result, which means removal for Trump and likely resignation and prosecution - because if Pence pardons Trump, he will be gone too. As it is, there may be a deal that Trump goes and Pence stays as long as there is no pardon, though all will deny it publicly. Pardoning Nixon was national healing. Pardoning Trump will cause riots in the streets.

The shift of Republicans to independents, not even Republican leaning independents means that the 2016 electoral map is history. If the election were held today, Clinton would win. If Mueller has enough on Pence to mention him and Pelosi makies Clinton Speaker (the Speaker need not be a member), then we may that chance. Whether any candidate is pro-life will be a detail easily overlooked. The Church is dealing with the child endangerment issue across the nation, so there will be no pastoral letters this year on Life. The GOP Catholic advantage is no more, at least not this year. Anything else is wishful thinking, which the movement seems to be good at to its own peril.