The moral stakes of the economic crisis

The moral stakes of the economic crisis
Libertarianism has nothing to do with the pandemic. Indeed, a libertarian bias in science puts reality above organization. We could have used a bit of that in the beginning when the government scientists were insisting COVID-19 is not a cold. Thus, they did not add cold symptoms to the list of things to look for if someone is affected.

Unfortunately, it really does start in the nose and sinuses with sneezing, with post-nasal drip carrying it to the throat and lungs, where it grows unabated with no immune reaction (or symptoms). This is the time of non-symptomatic spread between the first sneeze and the first wheeze. The narrative did not acknowledge this and the mistake was not Trump's. Masks don't stop person to person transmission, although they may prevent some community transmission. Right now, they are false security and solidarity run amok.

The second mistake was closing down parts of the country where no sneezing had occurred. Thus, reopening happened too soon, aid was delivered too soon and is now running out. The 20-20 hindsight version of how this should have been done was individual three week quarantine after the first abnormal sneeze (if not four). Kids should not have been pulled from school. If a grandparent was living at home, their immune system was fine because they were exposed to what the kids had.

The third mistake is that the first aid package was too generous and not targeted to firms in hot zones that were made to shut down. Also, enhanced UI should have been $600 per month, rather than per week - maybe $850 tops. An additional stimulus payment of $1200 a month could be made to pay rent and keep Steve Mnuchin from having to default on the bonds that hold the liens on his LLC rental properties and those of his friends (one of whom is also in the Cabinet).

As it is, we are about to have a second wave of deaths responding to how the virus was going to move in the first wave anyway. Total deaths will be between 400,000 and 500,000. There is no cure and there will be no vaccine for what really is a cold. It only kills because most have no immunity to it, unless their immune systems are in high gear from fighting off other colds.

There will be a second round of funding as soon as Mnuchin realizes that his bonds will default and when the rising death toll starts to mimic New York (although it may or may not get to these levels) and the economy closes down again. Gone are the extreme PPE and rush to ventilate. There are now treatments which any asthmatic (like me) could have told you would work (they did for me). Sadly, many still have the heroes of SARS2 in their memories and consider it a death sentence. This becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy. Unless the medical community and their talking heads do a major 180 degree turn, the fatality rate will still be excessive.

We will now be faced with the East Coast having plenty of money and, if not shut down again, the ability to sell labor. The rest of the country will probably be locked down sometime this month. When the next big bailout comes the supply of labor and goods will be much less than the last shutdown. The term for this will be Hyper-Stagflation. Lots of money, less stuff. Grocery prices are already higher. You ain't seen nothing yet.

States will demand their disaster assistance payments now, without congressional grandstanding. Any states that do not have expanded Medicaid will hear about it from their hospitals. The ACA will not be repealed. Ending mandates does not demand repeal by judge any more than not penalizing states who did not enact expanded Medicaid.  Roberts will not let it die just yet.

The goal of repeal was always about reversing the unearned income surtax on the rich. Obama should have funded ACA with a broad based tax. Hitting just the top tax brackets while using student load usury to meet baseline objections, rather than enacting a broad based payroll or consumption tax are the reasons the program was endangered. The reason for the financing that occurred was cynical electoral politics. Hopefully, this crisis will lead to a better funding mechanism as part of Medicaid for All, a Public Option, Single-payer Catastrophic or whatever compromise results from this crisis.