The Catholic Vote

The Catholic vote decides who wins, even if it doesn't exist
High identity ethnic Catholics are as much a special constituency group in the Republican Party as any found in the Democratic Party. HICs were part of the Taft wing of the GOP (not the Ike wing), they voted for Goldwater (like my father), voted in droves for Nixon, still believe he was innocent and hated Bill Clinton. Their college graduate children split between the Democratic and Republican elites, depending on their economics and family political fidelity.

Catholic voters have been, and always will be, subject to grievance on social issues. The Nixonian Swift Boat Veterans for Truth rallied the pro-Nixon vast right-wing conspiracy, but grievance over Gavin Newsom performing marriages for gay couples because not doing so is unconstitutional (a view 8 Justices agreed with in Perry v. Brown) led Karl Rove to push defense of marriage constitutional amendments. This was a step too far for religious voters (both Catholic and AME), some of whom voted for both Kerry and Proposition 8.

Burke (and other Catholic conservative bishops) vowing not to give Kerry  Communion (with one priest denying it to Biden more recently) was an embarrassment to university educated Catholics. Burke was not rewarded for the controversy. Like Bernard Law, he was called to Rome to stay. Going after Sisters who supported Obamacare and firing gay Catholic couples does more harm than good. The politics of Catholic grievance can backfire.

The Catholic 'votes' will still pick the next president

A bit more history is in order.

The message in 2008 was that formerly pro-life Catholic intellectuals could no longer go along with the bishops in their obvious Republican partisanship on abortion. That year, the Catholic vote and the vote overall were for Obama in exactly the same percentages.

In 2016, male Obama only voters and left-leaning Sanders voters (some of whom were and are Green Party members), stayed home. Clinton got Black and Feminist voters in record numbers, while High Identity Catholics were energized by racism against for Obama and voted for Trump. Obama-only voters punished Hillary for the sins of Bill on welfare reform and for putting Kaine, rather than Booker, on the ticket. When Trump maneuvered Hillary into supporting partial birth abortion, it was a bridge too far for enough suburban Catholic women and they joined in the grievance vote, putting Trump in office. They voted Democratic in 2018.

2020 will be a rout if Trump is still President. If he is replaced by Pence before then and Warren is on the ticket, the Lincoln Project voters may switch back to Republican voting. If Amy is on the ticket, Pence looses. Suburban Catholic women will identify with her - but not the wonkish Warren. Harris is to loudly pro-choice to play in among Ohio Catholic voters (although Dayton and Cleveland voters will turn out for her in droves. Both sides are all about identity politics. How suburban Catholic women respond to the pro-choice victory in June v. Gee may or may not make the difference.

I would hope that, at some point, Biden will sit down with the USCCB and educate them on the constitutional issues that make overturning Roe impossible. Since his age will likely prevent him from seeking a second term, making the lesson public could drive a stake in the heart of the pro-life movement. If he couples it with a push toward dramatically increasing family income, Cupich Catholics will welcome the redirection of the movement. This should probably wait until after November (unless polling among suburban Catholic women shows support for striking down Louisiana's Trap laws in June). Not igniting grievance is probably the best move for now (especially from the top of the ticket).

People only identify as Nones because they are asked about it by pollsters. While some may say that they are spiritual and not religious (which is a term of art found in AA meetings), many still identify in their religion of origin, even if they no longer go to Mass weekly. Voting pro-choice or marriage equality do not put someone outside of the Church because these issues are judicial, not political. No one can be excommunicated for simply having an opinion - or even stating it - on American constitutional law. If so, it is people who desire to end judicial review and revert to Catholic mob rule who are committing sin.

The Evangelical leaders decided to adopt the Catholic position on Life (and later Marriage) issues. The question should not be whether Catholic Democrats are still Catholic, but whether the USCCB Pro-Life Activities Office and its supporting bishops are more Republican than Catholic. If so, enacting Catholic social teaching in to law has no chance. I still want to no if there was collusion between the Internet Research Agency, the Trump campaign and the USCCB on abortion issues in the 2016 election. If so, could it even be investigated?