Tracking polls, looking toward 2020: A lot can happen in a year in politics

Tracking polls, looking toward 2020: A lot can happen in a year in politics
Tracking polls are most helpful in the primaries in winnowing candidates. In late October, I ignore Rasmussen and call states with a high enough lead to beat the margin of error. In 2012,  I used that method and my results were the same as Nate Silver.

This is a different year. The Trump coalition includes many who are sure that the next Supreme Justice will be the one to repeal Roe. So far, the two Trump Justices have done no such thing, even for the children with Down's Syndrome, whom Indiana sought to protect. If that case cannot get Certiorari, Alabama has no chance.

Democrats are not likely to point this out, since they fear their base would deradicalize (although that may not be the case this year). It is doubtful that a Democratic nominee would convince Republican pro-lifers anyway.

In the end, because Republicans vote tribally, Trump needs a primary challenger who will do so and propose a monthly middle class level negative income tax payment for each child to prevent most abortions. Trump's support is more wide than deep, so primary challenge is more likely to upend Trump than any Democrat.

We cannot risk four more years of Trump. If the Midwestern bishops support the Republican pro-life scam as they did in 2016, it may happen anyway. The issue must be defused early, so that the Bishops cannot repeat themselves this cycle.