Taking stock of the political life of 2018

https://www.ncronline.org/news/opinion/distinctly-catholic/taking-stock-political-life-2018
Trump is a one trick pony.  Even when he is not in trouble, he goes to the wall and the Wall to play to his racist base, which includes himself. 'Even though the Democrats said that they were focussing on healthcare, they only did so because Trump was lying about it and because everyone who would vote for him knew that this was all about defanging Trump and eventually removing him from office. The Democrats were defending a huge number of seats. That they only lost four rather than the expected twelve or so (almost half) shows how much Trump is loathed by most people. This also shows that Bernie spawned the political revolution he promised. Young Bernie voters went to the polls in the midterms when usually that demographic stays home.

The Trump economy is now becoming visible, not because of the Tax Act but because just after the Act passed, the Congress made a two-year budget deal with huge increases to the deficit to make up for spending deferred during the Obama Administration. Even with low spending, because he had higher taxes, there was still growth. Spending causes growth, not tax cuts. Tax cuts for the wealthy spur asset inflation, not economic growth - even a sugar high. When offset by more spending the economy grows because government spending spurs household spending by government employees, contractors and the commercial sector, which spurs non-government investment, usually funded with debt, not stock sales.

Tax cuts are just Monopoly money (quite literally). This year the target was a Bitcoin boom. When the tax cuts were less then realized, Bitcoin went down by 80% and the stock market, which had overvalued the coming tax cuts, fell as well. The smart money got out when the budget deal was announced, buy bonds before interest rates rise. Trump is correct that the recent Fed rate hikes will damage the economy - except for investors who now must compete with corporate investment to get money. Never forget that the Fed works for the banks, not the people. Higher interest rates are also needed because consumers need more money for higher prices due to Trump tariffs, further taking money out of the stock market.

Trump is a non-entity on the military front. The Pentagon knows that it can and must ignore orders transmitted by Twitter. Trump does not. It's a good system as long as the Pentagon is fighting tyranny rather than being its instrument.

The Federalist Society is a dying breed. It, like most lawyers, is shifting away from the Scalia view of the world. Few of its members would favor a judge or justice just because he was pro-life or even pro-states rights. That ship sailed long ago. That Gorsuch and Kavanaugh, who were Kennedy proteges, were their top picks shows that they are more interested in capitalism than overturning Roe.  Until the Right to Life movement champions a much higher family income for all via tax credits, it will be seen as the useful idiots of the dying Republican Party.

One wonders if Trump is pulling a Herman Cain to help kill it. Of course, the sloppy capitalism of Trump in his whoring for Russia makes that possibility less likely. Trump is going down, sooner than later. The only question is whether he will take Pence with him. Time is running out to indict Pence and get Trump to resign too to install Ryan as President. A missed opportunity for the GOP. This makes Pelosi queen or king maker if she does not take the Presidency herself. When I addressed her last year as Madam Future President, she smiled, so you never know.

For the last time, Bush Sr. did not win because of Willie Horton. Dukakis was a lousy candidate. He did not win the next time because, while he was a good President, he was out emoted by Bill Clinton. Bush only raised taxes on the highers income (the donor class). He lowered them on the upper middle from 33% to 31%.

Capitalism marches on. That it is ready to dump Trump is icing the only saving grace for the year.